Latest Global Update on COVID 19 from Sibylline (17th June)

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Latest Global Update on COVID 19 from Sibylline (17th June)


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  • World now stands on 8.173 million cases, nearly 444k fatalities, and approaching 4 million recoveries; seven day growth rate holds at just under 13%, while death rate as a percentage of cases continues slowly to fall
  • Identification of an effective, cheap, steroid countermeasure that will ease intense hospital pressure is a positive trigger for our base case, but not a panacea, and disease will remain prevalent absent a vaccine
  • This means that duty of care issues for employers will remain, particularly in the travel sphere; local, swift lockdowns in response to spike in Beijing also show the continued challenges that will rapidly and unpredictably impact businesses
  • The importation of cases to New Zealand, as a result of UK visitors being allowed to break quarantine on compassionate grounds, serves as a further indicator of travel risks and policy issues that stand in the face of more liberal re-opening of tourism and hospitality
  • A viable scenario remains the rapid closure of a resort destination and enforced quarantine, while a failure to react quickly to isolate visitors who have returned to home countries will pose a repeat of the European situation in early March
  • Meanwhile, attention in the UK remains focused on possible reduction in early July of 2 metre distancing to the WHO “standard” 1 metre; policy uncertainty affects businesses seeking to invest in adapting working spaces, and time will be required for this to stabilise, as countries work through a period of adaptation and learning
  • Overall, the situation will remain finely balanced through this quarter, and anticipated increases in travel in July could have rapid consequences in Europe

Our new Covid-19 portal is now LIVE! This  contains health sector data, exposure potential, security factors, and other modelling to support organisations seeking to rebuild global operations safely and responsibly.

Currently accessible to all registered Covid-19 Report readers, this will be maintained without charge for subscribers to the World Risk Register and associated services.

Please contact us for more information as you look at this challenging area.